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HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE...NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 65.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
